The Highlights from (Future) VRMA 2020

Originally printed in the VRMA Arrival Blog on November 14, 2017

Introduction

Industry conferences like VRMA National serve as milestones marking the short-term rental industry’s progress and direction. The landscape has shifted dramatically in just three years, with changes in Airbnb’s partnerships, HomeAway’s business model, and property manager scale.

As Bill Gates once said: “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next year and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” Using this perspective, here are ten predictions for VRMA 2020.

Ten Predictions for VRMA 2020

1. Tech Giants’ Connected Home Battle

Amazon, Google, and Apple will compete for dominance in short-term rentals as a platform for connected home products. These IoT-enabled devices (smart locks, lighting, thermostats) offer cost savings for property managers while enabling direct guest relationships. By 2020, expect major booth presence from these companies.

2. Regulatory Focus Shifts to Privacy

Industry legality battles will be resolved by 2020, with 90-day caps becoming standard in urban markets. Privacy concerns surrounding smart home devices will replace legality debates. Regulators, particularly the EU, will establish data collection and retention policies for short-term rentals.

3. Global Hotel Brands Become Major Sponsors

Companies like Accor, Hyatt, Marriott, and Hilton must pursue growth as public companies. With short-term rentals growing at 8-10% annually versus hotel demand at 2%, these brands will invest heavily. Accor has already purchased OneFineStay and Squarebreak, signaling industry entry.

4. A Property Manager Goes Public

With over $175 million in equity raises during 2017 (including StayAlfred, Sonder, Evolve, and Vacasa’s $103 million round), institutional investors are betting on PM viability as public companies. A PM IPO by 2020 is expected.

5. PMS Architecture Transforms

Property management software will shift from monolithic systems to modular, best-of-breed add-ons connecting to industry data, devices, and platforms — mirroring the mature hotel technology market. These modular add-ons will require massive scale (500,000+ listings) to succeed.

6. Enterprise Software Giants Acquire Leading PMS

Oracle and SAP will acquire major property management platforms as their own markets mature. Oracle’s purchase of Micros (hotel PMS) signals this direction. Significant exits for PMS providers are anticipated.

7. Amazon Becomes Leading VR Supply Company

Amazon will expand beyond groceries and restaurant delivery to offer “Experiences and Trips” through an Airbnb subsidiary.

8. Urban PMs Comprise Half of Conference Attendees

Fast-growing urban-focused property managers, including players like BnbBuddy (Edinburgh) and Air Agents (London), represent the industry’s innovation edge. Operating on thin margins despite strict regulations, these companies demonstrate segment promise and will comprise half the VRMA 2020 audience.

9. VRMA Goes Global

The annual conference will move to Paris, followed by Shanghai. Regional conferences will reorganize around Americas, Europe, and Asia/Pacific rather than Western and Eastern divisions. Europe dominates the current VR market; Asia/Pacific will follow.

Produced by Amazon Studios and distributed in 170 countries, this show will secure platinum sponsorship at VRMA 2020.

Conclusion

Three-year timeframes allow substantial industry transformation. What will you see at VRMA 2020?

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